New Delhi: What if India’s next energy revolution doesn’t come just from barren lands or desert sunfields—but from rooftops, ponds, plantations, and even railway tracks? A new reassessment of India’s solar energy landscape by The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) has revealed that the country is sitting on a cumulative solar potential of 10,830 GW, nearly 15 times the 2014 official estimate of 748 GW.
A key revelation of the macro-level reassessment is the rooftop solar potential, pegged at 962 GW, with rural rooftops accounting for 600 GW and urban rooftops for 360 GW. This recalculation signals a game-changing opportunity for India’s distributed solar strategy, particularly as the country aims to meet its target of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2070 .
Rooftop solar: A 962 GW goldmine
The study estimates that India has 180 million pucca and semi-pucca houses in rural areas, and 121 million in urban areas. With average roof sizes of 45 sq. m and 40 sq. m respectively, even a conservative estimate accounting for shading puts the rooftop solar potential at 600 GW for rural homes and 360 GW for urban ones. The 10% shading factor applied due to trees and surrounding buildings brings realism to this potential, ensuring it isn’t overstated .
This updated rooftop estimate is not just large—it’s transformative. For comparison, India’s total installed solar capacity stood at just over 81 GW as of March 2025. Unlocking even a fraction of this rooftop capacity could help decentralize energy production, reduce transmission losses, and empower households to become energy producers.
Ground-mounted solar on barren lands: 4,909 GW
Ground-mounted solar projects continue to dominate the solar power landscape, and the reassessment includes a fresh analysis of “barren and unculturable” land under the Nine-Fold classification of land use. Using GIS mapping, TERI estimates that such land can accommodate 4,909 GW of solar capacity, with Rajasthan (1,234 GW), Madhya Pradesh (731 GW), Maharashtra (606 GW), Gujarat (593 GW), and Andhra Pradesh (273 GW) topping the list .
This marks a significant increase from the 2014 MNRE estimate, which used only 3% of wasteland to arrive at the 748 GW figure. TERI’s updated methodology captures the full breadth of land-use categories, site accessibility, and high solar irradiation zones.
Agri-PV: A 4,177 GW opportunity
The reassessment brings in another emerging avenue—Agri-Photovoltaics (Agri-PV), which allows solar panels to coexist with crops. Targeting horticulture, tea, and coffee plantations, this category adds another 4,177 GW to the national potential. Of this, horticulture alone contributes 4,059 GW, with tea and coffee plantations adding 25 GW and 93 GW respectively.
The report calls for targeted R&D and pilot projects in agroclimatic zones, led by Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs) and agricultural universities, to better understand the feasibility of co-deployment of solar infrastructure with high-value crops .
Floating solar: 100 GW on water bodies
Floating solar, another underutilised segment, also sees a spotlight in the new assessment. TERI has estimated a total of 100 GW solar potential across inland reservoirs, barrages, ponds, tanks, and coastal aquaculture. This includes 55 GW on large reservoirs and 37 GW on smaller tanks and ponds. The estimate is derived using a 2.5% utilisation factor based on feasibility studies conducted at Bhakra and Pong dams in collaboration with BBMB authorities .
Railways, roads, and urban facades: Another 684 GW
The study also draws from GIZ’s earlier estimates for innovative applications such as solar installations on railway tracks (79 GW), roads (75 GW), building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) at 309 GW, and urban PV at 221 GW. Together, these segments present another 684 GW of technically feasible solar potential that remains largely untapped.
These applications offer opportunities for co-utilising existing infrastructure with minimal land use trade-offs, aligning well with urban sustainability goals and electric mobility infrastructure.
Methodology and scope
The reassessment is macro-level and relies on a combination of literature review, GIS-based land use analysis, feasibility studies, and earlier potential estimation models. While the numbers reflect technical potential, the authors caution that realisable deployment will depend on micro-level assessment, policy incentives, grid availability, and market interest.
For instance, the 4,909 GW from barren lands is a theoretical maximum; filters like substation proximity, road access, and solar insolation must be applied to narrow down realisable targets. Similar caveats apply to floating solar and Agri-PV.
Why it matters now
India’s electricity demand is expected to exceed 5,000 TWh by 2050, and could peak at over 9,300 TWh, matching per capita consumption levels seen in the European Union today. In this context, the earlier 748 GW estimate may not suffice. Solar will be the backbone of India’s clean energy transition, and this reassessment helps reset the expectations and direction for planners, developers, and policymakers .
The findings also align with India’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted under the Paris Agreement, which call for 45% reduction in emission intensity over 2005 levels by 2030 and 50% of power capacity to come from non-fossil sources.
Final word
India’s new solar map, according to the TERI study, isn’t limited to deserts anymore. Rooftops, water bodies, farms, and even urban structures are all part of the 10,830 GW opportunity. With this macro-level vision in place, the focus must now shift to implementation, micro-level site assessments, and enabling policy frameworks.
As rooftop solar alone offers 962 GW of potential, decentralised solar generation may soon become India’s biggest climate and energy story of the decade.
